Indeks di Wall Street ditutup melemah pada Kamis (16/7). Aksi jual saham teknologi mendorong koreksi indeks meskipun sejumlah laporan keuangan emiten solid. Penjualan ritel AS sesuai dengan ekspektasi, tumbuh 0.2% MoM di Juni 2026 (16/7). Data Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary diperkirakan naik di level 51 pada Juli (17/7). Dari Inggris, pertumbuhan PDB tercatat 0.1% MoM di Juni 2026 (16/7). Investasi asing langsung di Indonesia meningkat 27.4% YoY ke rekor tertinggi sebesar Rp257.7 triliun pada 2Q26 (16/7). Harga minyak melemah hampir 1% (16/7). U.S. 10-year Bond Yield naik lebih dari 1 bps ke level 4.559% (16/7). Harga emas spot melemah 1.7% di level US$3,989/troy oz (16/7). Diperkirakan IHSG berpeluang melanjutkan penguatan menguji area resistance 6,125–6,175. Top picks (17/7): BBCA, ICBP, EXCL, TKIM dan SMGR. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Rabu (15/7). Penguatan indeks dipicu oleh data PPI AS yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan dan kenaikan saham teknologi besar. Inflasi PPI AS tercatat sebesar 5.5% YoY di Juni 2026 dari 6.0% YoY di Mei 2026 (15/7). Penjualan ritel di AS diperkirakan mencapai 6.7% YoY di Juni 2026 (16/7). Pertumbuhan PDB Tiongkok 4.3% YoY di 2Q26 melambat dari 5% YoY di 1Q26 (15/7). Posisi utang luar negeri (ULN) Indonesia tercatat sebesar US$444.4 miliar atau naik 2.1% YoY (15/7). Harga minyak menguat tipis (15/7). U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun 3 bps ke level 4.555% (15/7). Harga emas spot melemah 0.2% di level US$4,047/troy oz (15/7). Diperkirakan IHSG masih akan berkonsolidasi di kisaran 6,000-6,125. Top picks (16/7): BBYB, MAPA, DKFT, LSIP dan HMSP. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks di Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Selasa (14/7). Saham semikonduktor rebound setelah data inflasi AS lebih rendah dari perkiraan. Data inflasi AS sebesar 3.5% YoY di Juni 2026 dari 4.2% YoY di Mei 2026 (14/7). Pertumbuhan ekspor impor Tiongkok meningkat di atas perkiraan (14/7). Laju inflasi PPI AS diperkirakan melambat menjadi 6.2% YoY di Juni 2026 dari 6.5% YoY di Mei 2026 (15/7). Pertumbuhan PDB Tiongkok diperkirakan melambat menjadi 4.5% YoY di 2Q26 dari 5% YoY di 1Q26 (15/7). S&P memproyeksikan defisit APBN mencapai 2.9% terhadap PDB untuk tahun 2026 dan 2027. BEI menambah 37 saham ke dalam daftar saham HSC sehingga total menjadi  51 saham. Harga minyak menguat lebih dari 1% (14/7). U.S. 10-year Bond Yield turun lebih dari 2 bps ke level 4.583% (14/7). Harga emas spot menguat 1.2% di level US$4,046/troy oz (14/7). IHSG berpeluang konsolidasi direntang level 5,950-6,125 pada perdagangan Rabu (15/7). Top picks (15/7): WIFI, NCKL, MYOR, CTRA dan MBMA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

July 20th, 2026

July 17th, 2026

July 16th, 2026

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah pada Jumat (17/7) dan pekan lalu. Koreksi disebabkan oleh pelemahan saham semikonduktor dan eskalasi geopolitik. Pergerakan harga minyak akan menjadi perhatian pasar global. Di Wall Street akan dirilis sejumlah laporan keuangan perusahaan teknologi pekan ini. ECB diperkirakan mempertahankan suku bunga acuan tetap di 2.4% (23/7). Investor akan menantikan RDG Bank Indonesia dan pertumbuhan kredit (22/7). Sentimen domestik membaik namun perlu waspadai kenaikan harga minyak mentah. Secara teknikal IHSG berpeluang uji level 6,225-6,280  pada pekan ini. Top picks pekan ini: UNVR, KLBF, BBYB, ICBP, MDKA dan GTSI. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat pada Jumat (10/6). Penguatan terutama dikontribusikan oleh saham sektor teknologi. Di Wall Street akan dimulai earning season 2Q26 pada pekan ini. Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis diantaranya CPI dan Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Investor juga menantikan testimoni Chairman the Fed di DPR AS dan Senat AS. Pemerintah akan lelang SBSN dengan target indikatif Rp10 triliun (14/7). BI akan rilis Statistik Utang Luar Negeri Mei 2026 (13/7). Diperkirakan IHSG masih bergerak sideways pada kisaran 5800-6000 pada pekan ini. Top picks pekan ini: ADRO, ADMR, BRMS, INCO, ARCI dan SRTG. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Mayoritas indeks bursa global ditutup menguat pada  Jumat (3/7). Faktor positif dari harapan the Fed akan menunda kenaikan suku bunga. Pekan ini investor akan cermati FOMC Minutes. Dari domestik, akan dirilis data cadangan devisa, indeks keyakinan konsumen, penjualan ritel dan penjualan otomotif. Koreksi harga minyak dan rebound harga emas berpotensi menjadi faktor positif. BEI kaji perubahan 3 kriteria papan pemantauan khusus dan autorejection. Diperkirakan IHSG berpotensi uji level psikologis 6000 pada pekan ini. Top picks pekan ini: ASII, DSSA, AVIA, NCKL, EMAS dan ELSA. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment naik menjadi 54.4 pada Juli 2026, melampaui perkiraan 51.0 dan mencapai level tertinggi sejak Februari, karena penurunan harga bensin. Namun, sentimen masih 12% lebih rendah dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya akibat tekanan harga, sementara ekspektasi inflasi satu tahun kedepan turun menjadi 4.2% dari 4.6% dan ekspektasi inflasi jangka panjang kedepan tetap 3.3%. Kinerja Lapangan Usaha (LU) Industri Pengolahan tergolong masih mengalami ekspansi, tetapi melambat menjadi 51.43% pada 2Q26 dari 52.03% pada 1Q26. Berdasarkan Sublapangan Usaha (Sub-LU), Sub-LU yang mengalami ekspansi dengan indeks tertinggi adalah Industri Mesin dan Perlengkapan. Kinerja LU Industri Pengolahan diperkirakan tetap mengalami ekspansi dan naik sebesar 52.32% pada 3Q26.  

U.S. retail sales tumbuh lebih lambat 0.2% MoM pada Juni 2026, dari pertumbuhan 1.0% MoM pada Mei dan menjadi pertumbuhan terendah dalam lima bulan, terutama akibat penurunan penjualan bensin di SPBU sebesar 5.3% MoM. Di luar bensin, penjualan ritel meningkat 0.7% MoM, didukung oleh kenaikan pada dealer kendaraan bermotor yang tumbuh 1.9% MoM. Realisasi investasi yang masuk ke Indonesia naik 7.2% YoY menjadi Rp1,010.6 triliun pada 1H26, dengan kontribusi penanaman modal asing (PMA) naik menjadi Rp507.6 triliun dan penyertaan modal dalam negeri (PMDN) turun menjadi Rp502.9 triliun. Investasi terbesar berasal dari Singapura (US$8.8 miliar), Hong Kong (US$7.6 miliar), Tiongkok (US$3.9 miliar), Jepang (US$1.9 miliar), dan AS (US$1.7 miliar).

U.S. Price Producer Inflation (PPI) turun 0.3% MoM pada Juni 2026, setelah naik 0.6% MoM pada Mei, terutama akibat penurunan harga barang sebesar 1.4% MoM yang dipicu turunnya harga bensin 12% MoM. Secara tahunan PPI melambat menjadi 5.5% YoY dari 6.0% YoY, dengan inflasi inti bulanan sebesar 0.2% MoM dan tahunan 4.7% YoY di Juni 2026. Pertumbuhan Utang Luar Negeri (ULN) Indonesia naik sebesar 2.1% YoY menjadi US$444.4 miliar, dengan ULN publik tumbuh melambat sebesar 3.7% YoY. Rasio ULN Indonesia terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) tercatat 29.9% pada Mei 2026, dengan kontribusi ULN jangka panjang sebesar 83.9%.

July 20th, 2026

July 13th, 2026

Juli 6th, 2026

Code : RANS Sector : Consumer Cyclicals Sub-Sector : Entertainment & Movie Production --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 30 Juni 2026 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 2 Juli 2026 - 8 Juli 2026 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 8 Juli 2026 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 9 Juli 2026 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 10 Juli 2026 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar 2,525,000,000 (dua miliar lima ratus dua puluh lima juta) saham biasa atas nama, atau sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar 20.02% (dua puluh koma nol dua persen) dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham dengan nilai nominal Rp10,- (sepuluh Rupiah) setiap saham. Nilai Nominal : Rp10 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp135 - Rp170 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar Rp429,250,000,000,- (empat ratus dua puluh sembilan miliar dua ratus lima puluh juta Rupiah). Penjamin Pelaksana Emisi Efek: PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Penjamin Emisi : Akan ditentukan kemudian By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Code : BACH Sector : Industrials Sub-Sector : Diversified Industrial Trading --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 29 Juni 2026 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 1 Juli 2026 - 3 Juli 2026 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 3 Juli 2026 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 6 Juli 2026 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 7 Juli 2026 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 615,000,000 (enam ratus lima belas juta) saham biasa atas nama yang merupakan saham baru, dengan nilai nominal Rp50,- (lima puluh Rupiah) setiap saham yang mewakili sebanyak 15.06% (lima belas koma nol enam persen) dari modal yang telah ditempatkan dan disetor penuh setelah Penawaran Umum. Nilai Nominal : Rp50 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp400 - Rp500 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar Rp246,000,000,000,- (dua ratus empat puluh enam miliar rupiah) sampai dengan Rp307,500,000,000,-(tiga ratus tujuh miliar lima ratus juta rupiah). Penjamin Pelaksana Emisi Efek: PT Erdhika Elit Sekuritas Penjamin Emisi : Akan ditentukan kemudian By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Code : JECX Sector : Healthcare Sub-Sector : Healthcare Providers --------------------------------------------- PERKIRAAN JADWAL PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Perkiraan Tanggal Efektif : 29 Juni 2026 Perkiraan Masa Penawaran Umum : 1 Juli 2026 - 3 Juli 2026 Perkiraan Tanggal Penjatahan : 3 Juli 2026 Perkiraan Tanggal Distribusi Saham : 6 Juli 2026 Perkiraan Tanggal Pencatatan Saham di BEI : 7 Juli 2026 --------------------------------------------- STRUKTUR PENAWARAN UMUM PERDANA SAHAM Sebanyak-banyaknya 487,983,500 saham biasa, yang terdiri dari (i) 325,322,300 saham baru yang dikeluarkan dari portepel Perseroan yang mewakili 10.00% dan (ii) 162,661,200 saham milik DR.Dr. Waldensius Girsang, SpM(K) yang mewakili 5.00% dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham yang mana seluruhnya sejumlah sebanyak-banyaknya 15% dari modal ditempatkan dan disetor Perseroan setelah Penawaran Umum Perdana Saham dengan nilai nominal Rp16,- (enam belas Rupiah) setiap saham. Nilai Nominal : Rp16 per lembar saham Harga Penawaran : Rp1,200 - Rp1,400 per lembar saham Jumlah Penawaran Umum : Sebanyak-banyaknya sebesar Rp683.176.900.000 (enam ratus delapan puluh tiga miliar seratus tujuh puluh enam juta sembilan ratus ribu Rupiah) Penjamin Pelaksana Emisi Efek: PT Trimegah Sekuritas Penjamin Emisi : Akan ditentukan kemudian By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

BBTN reported a solid 1H26 performance, with net profit rising 40.8% YoY to IDR2.40 trillion, reaching 68% of our FY26 forecast, supported by a sharper decline in interest expense than interest income and improving profitability. Loan growth remained resilient at 11.2% YoY to IDR418.11 trillion, driven primarily by a 46.1% YoY increase in non-housing loans, while subsidized mortgages continued to represent the largest share of the loan portfolio. Funding remained stable with Third Party Funds and CASA growing 6.6% YoY and 6.5% YoY, respectively, while improving asset quality reduced Gross NPL to 3.0% and Cost of Credit to 0.7%, supporting earnings sustainability. BBTN continues to diversify its business beyond mortgages through the expansion of non-housing loans and the planned acquisition of Bank SMBC Indonesia's pension loan portfolio, which is expected to enhance loan yields and diversify revenue sources. We maintain our positive outlook on BBTN, supported by strong earnings realization, improving asset quality, continued support from the FLPP program, and management's strategy to gradually increase the non-housing loan portfolio to approximately 30% over the next five years. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

MBMA delivered solid 1Q26 results, with revenue up 24% YoY to US$455 million and net profit reaching US$82 million, supported by higher NPI and nickel ore contributions, stronger nickel ASP, and robust exports to China. Saprolite and limonite production and sales increased significantly, driven by higher internal SCM ore supply, reduced reliance on third-party ore purchases, and stronger feedstock demand for PT ESG's HPAL operations. NPI production and sales both grew 23% YoY following the completion of maintenance activities and ongoing furnace optimization, while HGNM production increased despite weaker sales due to shipment timing differences. PT ESG continued ramping up MHP production, PT SLNC is on track for commissioning in 2H26, construction progress exceeded 94%, and AIM maintained stable sulfuric acid production. Downside risks include the potential implementation of a windfall tax, higher Mineral Reference Prices (HMA), increased nickel royalty rates, and geopolitical uncertainties, all of which could pressure MBMA's profitability going forward.   By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research -Disclaimer On -

MDKA recorded significant performance improvement in 1Q26, with revenue growing 23.5% year-on-year to US$620 million, meeting 34% of FY26 estimates. This growth was driven by higher revenue from limonite (+US$65 million), gold (+US$29 million), and NPI (+US$19 million), which offset the decline in HGNM revenue due to delivery delays. The company's profitability experienced strong margin expansion. Gross profit surged 277.2% year-on-year to US$218 million (GPM rose from 11.5% to 35.1%), driven by inventory buildup and improvements in gold and net profit margins. Operating profit grew 347.8% year-on-year to US$194 million, while net profit surged 4,689.8% year-on-year to US$120 million, with net profit reaching 19.4%. Operationally, the increase in average selling prices (ASP) successfully offset the decline in production volume. Gold ASP surged 76% year-on-year to US$4,841/oz, pushing cash margins to a five-quarter high. In the copper segment (Wetar), production fell 11% year-on-year following the completion of mining activities at the end of 2025, but copper ASP increased 38% year-on-year to US$5.71/lb. For FY26, TB Gold management is targeting gold production of 80,000–90,000 oz with an AISC of US$1,900–2,050/oz. Meanwhile, for the copper segment, the production target is set at 4,000–5,000 tonnes with an AISC of US$4.00–4.70/lb. The main risks to consider going forward include the potential for a decline in gold prices due to inflation concerns and an increase in Indonesia's benchmark nickel price.   By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research -Disclaimer On -

China's pulp demand remains resilient, with 2M26 import volumes reaching 2.47 million metric tons, or 14.4% above the 10-year average. Despite ongoing digitalization, demand continues to shift toward downstream products, supported by projected FY24–FY28F CAGR of 5.0% for tissue, 3.6% for packaging paper, and 2.7% for pulp, while printing paper demand is expected to decline. INKP's production capacity expansion is expected to become a key catalyst in FY26F. The addition of 2.4 million metric tons of downstream capacity increases total capacity to 9.4 million metric tons, supporting a 20.7% YoY increase in total sales volume to 6.5 million metric tons and accelerating downstream production growth. The company's sales mix is expected to shift further toward downstream products, with downstream contribution projected to increase to 48% of total sales volume in FY26F (vs 37% in FY25), reducing reliance on the cultural paper segment and strengthening exposure to higher-growth packaging-related products. Industrial paper is expected to remain the primary earnings driver, with segment revenue projected to increase 61.3% YoY to US$1.66 billion, raising its contribution to total revenue to 43% (vs 32% in FY25) and supporting total revenue growth of 20.6% YoY to US$3.82 billion. We estimate FY26F net income to increase 13.3% YoY to US$514 million. Although higher raw material costs are expected to slightly compress margins, improved economies of scale and operating efficiency are projected to drive 22.3% YoY growth in operating profit, supporting overall earnings expansion. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

MEDC booked revenue growth of 19.24% YoY to US$668.3 million in 1Q26. This growth was driven by increased revenue in almost all business segments, except for the power segment, which decreased by 2.19% YoY to US$43.4 million in 1Q26, despite power sales increasing by 20.8% YoY to 1,053 GWh following the completion of the Ijen and ELB expansion projects in 2025. E&P oil and gas revenue increased by 11.38% YoY to US$420.6 million in 1Q26, driven by the addition of 24% participation interest in Corridor, new production from Forel and Terubuk in South Natuna Block B, and increases in average oil and gas prices of 3.9% YoY to US$75.1/bbl and 1.4% YoY to US$7.2/mmbtu, respectively. MEDC’s net profit increased by 251.44% YoY to US$72.2 million in 1Q26, driven by a share of profit from associates and joint ventures of US$44.6 million, compared to a loss of US$20 million in 1Q25. On the other hand, other expenses decreased to US$1.2 million in 1Q26, primarily due to foreign exchange losses turning into gains. MEDC has a strategic position as an integrated oil and gas producer with significant exposure to oil prices. MEDC has a portfolio of upstream oil and gas assets spread across Indonesia, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. The exploration and production (E&P) business remains the primary contributor to the Company’s revenue and EBITDA, placing MEDC in an advantageous position as global oil prices remain at high levels. MEDC has entered a phase of stronger production growth following the successful operation of several strategic oil and gas projects resulting from investments made over the past few years. The operation of the Forel and Terubuk fields in Natuna, which have a production capacity of approximately 30 mboepd, has become the primary catalyst for increased production volumes while also strengthening the Company’s operating cash flow. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

**Phintraco Sekuritas Initiation Report** PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk - HMSP **Aditya Prayoga** >HMSP remains the market leader in Indonesia’s tobacco industry with c.30.7% market share in FY25, supported by strong brand equity through Marlboro, Sampoerna A, and Dji Sam Soe, as well as an extensive distribution network covering more than 100 sales and distribution points nationwide. Beyond conventional cigarettes, HMSP continues to strengthen its exposure to SFP through IQOS (HTP), VEEV (e-vapor), and ZYN (nicotine pouches), positioning the company to capture evolving consumer preferences toward reduced-risk nicotine products. >Indonesia remains significantly underpenetrated in the global SFP market. HTP penetration stood at only c.0.6% in FY25, well below levels observed in several developed and emerging markets. While conventional cigarettes still accounted for c.82.5% of global tobacco industry volume in FY25, the HTP segment is expected to be one of the fastest-growing categories globally, supported by increasing adoption of smoke-free alternatives and expanding regulatory acceptance in various markets. >HMSP delivered a relatively resilient 1Q26 performance, with net profit increasing 7.2% YoY to IDR2.1 trillion despite revenue declining 5.5% YoY to IDR27.2 trillion. Growth was primarily supported by improving profitability and strong momentum in the SFP segment, where revenue surged 43.8% YoY to IDR637 billion, increasing its contribution to total revenue to 2.3%. >Looking ahead, we expect HMSP to return to low-single-digit revenue growth in FY26F, supported by a gradual stabilization in conventional cigarette volumes and continued expansion of the SFP business. Meanwhile, profitability is expected to improve as excise-related production costs normalize following the absence of excise tax increases in FY26, allowing for a more balanced pricing strategy and better gross margin recovery. > We forecast FY26F revenue and net profit growth of 2.0% YoY and 11.8% YoY, respectively, driven by improving operational efficiency, easing cost pressures, and growing contribution from higher-growth smoke-free products. Meanwhile, gross profit margin is projected to improve to 18.4% in FY26F (vs. 15.7% in FY24), driven by the stabilization of excise-related production costs per stick (c.IDR 800/stick in FY26F) and a more moderate pace of ASP increases > Upside risks include: (1) stronger-than-expected SFP adoption, (2) stable excise policy environment, and (3) faster recovery in industry volumes. Key downside risks include: (1) higher-than-expected excise tax increases, (2) prolonged consumer downtrading, and (3) intensifying competition across both conventional and smoke-free product categories. Full Report: By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research – Disclaimer On – Contact Us: WA: 08119560188 IG: phintracosekuritasofficial YT: Phintraco Sekuritas Official TELE: phintasprofits www.phintracosekuritas.org www.profits.co.id

GDP of the chemical, pharmaceutical, and traditional medicine industries grew consistently, reflecting that demand for pharmaceutical products, medicines, and healthcare services remains steady amid increasing healthcare needs and people’s health awareness. The PMI of the chemical, pharmaceutical, and traditional medicine industries contracted in 1Q26. This condition indicates a slowdown in production and demand. If this condition continues, the revenue growth of pharmaceutical companies will potentially slow down in the future. The pharmaceutical industry is still highly dependent on imported raw materials, as reflected in the industry's import value, which consistently exceeds its export value. This condition has caused the sector’s trade balance to consistently experience a deficit. The performance of the pharmaceutical companies in our coverage is mixed. KLBF booked revenue growth of 10.13% YoY in 1Q26. This growth was driven by increased sales across all business segments. Downside risks in this sector include a more-than-expected weakening of purchasing power, restrictions on expansion, and intense competition with e-commerce platforms. Meanwhile, SIDO booked a revenue decrease of 18.83% YoY in 1Q26, primarily due to SIDO’s inventory normalization efforts in its distribution channels. Downside risks in this sector include dependence on imported raw materials, the risk of changes in pharmaceutical regulations, and intense competition between industry players. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

**Phintraco Sekuritas Sector Update** **Plantation Sector** **Aditya Prayoga** > The plantation sector's performance in 1Q26 showed a quarterly normalization following the strong performance recorded in 4Q25. Aggregate revenue grew 7.3% YoY to IDR 16.0 Trillion, but declined 3.8% QoQ as the peak production and harvesting season came to an end, resulting in lower sales volumes across most companies under our coverage. A similar trend was reflected in aggregate gross profit and net profit, which declined by 22.9% QoQ and 14.3% QoQ, respectively. > STAA recorded the strongest growth within our coverage universe, with revenue rising 49.2% YoY to IDR 2.5 Trillion, driven by the contribution from its refinery business, which was not reflected in 1Q25. However, its quarterly performance also normalized, with revenue and net profit declining by 20.0% QoQ and 31.6% QoQ, respectively. In terms of profitability, SSMS remained the sector leader with a GPM of 36.0%, while AALI posted the lowest margins, with a GPM of 15.5% and an NPM of 5.0%. >We expect Indonesia’s CPO production to remain relatively stagnant in FY26F at around 58 million tons (+0–1% YoY) While 2H26 production is likely to be slightly stronger than 1H26, supported by seasonal patterns where approximately 53% of annual output is generated in the second half, we believe the improvement will be largely seasonal in nature. >Looking ahead, the potential emergence of El Niño in 2H26 remains a factor worth monitoring. Nevertheless, we believe the risk to FY26F production remains relatively limited, given that weather-related impacts on palm oil productivity typically materialize with a lag of 9–12 months. As a result, any stronger-than-expected El Niño event is more likely to affect the FY27F production outlook rather than FY26F. > On the demand side, the implementation of the mandatory B50 biodiesel program, effective from 1 July 2026, is expected to significantly increase domestic CPO consumption. Based on the government’s simulation, CPO demand for biodiesel could rise to approximately 17.9 million tons (+33.4%), creating additional demand of around 4.35 million tons compared to the current B40 scheme. As domestic demand growth is expected to outpace supply growth, market balances could tighten further and support CPO prices. > External demand is also expected to remain supportive. India's seasonal restocking cycle ahead of the Diwali festival is likely to strengthen imports during 2H26, while recent data suggest that China's palm oil imports are beginning to recover after several years of decline. We believe these factors should help absorb additional supply entering the market during the second half of the year. >Downside risks to our view include: (1) volatility in CPO and other vegetable oil prices, (2) changes in biodiesel or export policies, and (3) higher-than-expected fertilizer and operating costs resulting from geopolitical tensions and global supply chain disruptions. Full Report : https://phintracosekuritas.org/ By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research – Disclaimer On –

**Phintraco Sekuritas Sector Update** **Telecommunication Sector** **Aditya Prayoga** **Telecommunication:  **Monetization Remains the Key Earnings Driver** > The telecommunications sector delivered relatively solid earnings growth in 3M26, with aggregate revenue increasing 9.2% YoY to IDR 64.23 Trillion. The growth was primarily driven by the consolidation impact at EXCL following the merger of XL Axiata and Smartfren into XLSmart, which lifted EXCL's revenue by 37.4% YoY to IDR 11.82 Trillion. Excluding the merger impact, sector growth was more moderate, as reflected in revenue growth of 12.1% YoY at ISAT and 1.5% YoY at TLKM. > On the profitability front, sector EBITDA increased 5.7% YoY to IDR 30.62 Trillion. However, EBITDA margin contracted to 47.2% (-1.9ppt YoY), indicating that revenue growth has yet to be fully accompanied by operating efficiency improvements. At the bottom-line level, aggregate net profit declined 30.0% YoY to IDR 5.07 Trillion, primarily due to weaker earnings from TLKM and the ongoing post-merger integration process at EXCL. > The SIM card starter pack repricing strategy implemented since last year continued to support customer monetization improvement. This was reflected in sector ARPU, which increased 13.2% YoY to IDR 45.9K, supported by a 17.2% YoY increase in data consumption to 14.5K PB and higher average data usage per subscriber, reaching 48.3 GB (+15.7% YoY). As a result, sector data yield improved by 5.8% YoY to IDR 2,905/GB. > Despite the strong improvement in monetization, the aggregate subscriber base remained relatively stable at 320.1 million subscribers (+2.3% YoY; -0.8% QoQ), suggesting that industry growth is increasingly being driven by improving revenue quality rather than subscriber expansion. Among operators, TLKM recorded the strongest data yield growth (+25.9% YoY), while ISAT continued to deliver robust data traffic growth (+25.1% YoY). > Looking ahead, we see two key catalysts that could shape the sector in FY26, namely the upcoming 700 MHz and 2.6 GHz spectrum auctions and the implementation of facial verification-based SIM registration starting in July 2026. We believe both initiatives have the potential to improve network capacity while enhancing the quality of the industry's subscriber base. > While facial verification-based SIM registration could lead to a c.5–10% decline in subscriber numbers in the near term due to customer base cleansing, we view the impact positively as it should improve subscriber quality and support stronger monetization. At the same time, additional spectrum allocation is expected to strengthen network quality and support future data traffic growth. > Downside risks to our view include: (1) weaker-than-expected ARPU growth due to softer consumer purchasing power, (2) a larger-than-expected decline in subscriber numbers following customer base cleansing, and (3) higher-than-expected spectrum acquisition costs and capex requirements. Full Report : https://phintracosekuritas.org By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research – Disclaimer On –

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell further to its lowest level in 2026 to 117.8 in June 2026 from 120.9 in May 2026, but still exceeded the threshold of 100, reflecting consumer optimism about the economic situation. This optimism is supported by consumer perception of current economic conditions and expectations of future economic conditions, but tends to weaken because the Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) and the Consumer Expectation Index (CEI), which are at optimistic levels, are recorded to decline in June 2026. The CECI was recorded at 109.2 in June 2026 from 112.2 in May 2026, while the CEI was recorded at 126.4 in June 2026 from 129.7 in May 2026.

Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves slightly increased to US$145.6 billion in June 2026 from US$144.9 billion in May 2026. Such development was predominantly driven by tax and services receipts amid the government’s external debt repayments and the Bank Indonesia’s Rupiah stabilization policy. The Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves position was equivalent to financing 5.5 months of imports or 5.4 months of imports and servicing the government external debt, which still exceeding the international adequacy standard of around three months of imports.

The US PMI indicators in June 2026 reflect the resilience of US economic activity amid global uncertainty. Both US manufacturing and services sectors remaining in expansion zone, despite a mixed signals across sectors with a weakening trend. Growth in both sectors was mainly driven by increased output and new orders, although consumer and business confidence remained pressured by the Middle East conflict and trade tariffs. In addition, there are challenges faced by the US that loom over the US economic outlook ahead, including high cost pressures due to rising energy and input prices.

Middle East geopolitical tensions disrupted global energy supply, pushing up oil prices and increasing pressure on inflation, exchange rates, and global monetary policy. The US–Iran peace agreement and the planned reopening of the Strait of Hormuz improved market sentiment and eased oil prices, although geopolitical risks remain. Global growth is expected to moderate in 2026, with persistent market volatility driven by energy prices, inflation, and higher-for-longer interest rates. Indonesia targets 5.4% GDP growth in 2026, supported by fiscal stimulus, while inflation is expected to remain within Bank Indonesia's target range in 2H26. Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain a tight monetary stance amid Rupiah depreciation, global rate pressures, and inflation risks. Fiscal conditions remain manageable, with the 2026 budget deficit reaching 0.7% of GDP by May, still well below the full-year target despite widening from last year. Foreign investors are likely to remain cautious, as the market awaits MSCI's market accessibility review and S&P's sovereign credit rating assessment. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Global economic growth is expected to keep slowing amid high global uncertainty. This situation continues to weigh on trade, investment, and overall economic performance. U.S. President Donald Trump’s import tariff policies have created uncertainty, though recent negotiations indicate potential progress. Efforts toward a U.S.–China trade deal, including partial tariff cuts and delayed export restrictions, are offset by new risks from stricter transshipment monitoring. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming the global economy by automating production and addressing labor shortages. The integration of AI and robotics enhances industrial efficiency and supports productivity through adaptive labor and migration policies. Global inflation pressures have eased except in the U.S., Europe, and the U.K., driven by import tariffs and strong demand. Several major central banks have started to cut interest rates, while others remain cautious to maintain stability. Global fiscal conditions are becoming more fragile due to geopolitical tensions, U.S. tariff policies, and high public debt. Expansionary fiscal policies and rising interest rates are increasing debt costs and limiting fiscal space. Geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt supply chains, raising energy and food prices. However, global commodity prices in 2025 show mixed trends, influenced by weaker demand, supply disruptions, and climate change. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indonesia's economy is projected to grow 5.0%-5.2% YoY in 2026. Indonesia's economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2026, in line with expectations of improving global conditions and increased domestic investment activity. Consumer confidence index and retail sales are expected to remain positive in 2026. Supported by the government's stimulus program, assuming controlled inflation and consumption incentive. Inflation in 2026 is expected to remain within BI's target range of 2.5% ± 1%. This projection is based on relatively stable inflation expectations at low levels, the stability of the Rupiah exchange rate, and synergistic efforts by Bank Indonesia and the Government. The opportunity for further cuts by Bank Indonesia (BI) Rate remains possible in 2026. This projection is based on relatively stable inflation expectations at low levels, the stability of the Rupiah exchange rate, and synergistic efforts by Bank Indonesia and the Government. The allocation of government funds in banks has positively influenced national liquidity. By September 2025, the adjusted base money rose to Rp2,152.4 trillion, up from Rp1,961.34 trillion in August 2025. The 2026 APBN deficit is targeted at 2.68% of GDP. The 2026 APBN targets state revenue at IDR 3,153.6 trillion, comprising IDR 2,357.7 trillion in tax revenue and IDR 336 trillion in customs and excise revenue. IHSG's conservative level for 2026 is estimated at 9,255 and its aggressive level at 9,883. Sectoral Coverage: Banks, Properties & Real estate, F&B and Poultry, Retails, Telecommunication, Tower, Coal, Pharmaceuticals, Plantations, Construction, Metals & Mining, Industrial, and Cement. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

Indonesia’s government bond yield curve continues to bearishly flatten, with short-to-medium tenors amid higher front-end risk premiums, fiscal concerns, and persistent global market volatility. Bank Indonesia raised the BI Rate by 50 bps to 5.25% to support Rupiah stability and maintain attractive real yield swhile domestic inflation has started to moderation. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in the near term, as markets price a 99.4% probability of no change in June 2026, reflecting policymakers’ caution toward inflation and geopolitical risks. The latest Fed Dot Plot signals a gradual and shallow easing cycle, with the median Fed Funds Rate projected at 3.375% by end-2026 and 3.125% by end-2027, reinforcing the higher-for-longer interest rate environmen Limited policy flexibility from Bank Indonesia, driven by Rupiah depreciation, declining foreign exchange reserves, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is expected to keep upward pressure on government bond yields and reduce the likelihood of near-term rate cuts. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research -Disclaimer On-

Global Highlight: Global economic conditions remained relatively resilient despite geopolitical tensions and the temporary Strait of Hormuz disruption, supported by stable oil prices, resilient U.S. economic activity, and improving manufacturing and services data. Although U.S. inflation pressures increased due to higher energy costs, stable labor market conditions and easing recession risks reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a “higher-for-longer” interest rate stance in the near term. Indonesia Highlight: Indonesia’s economy remained resilient in 1Q26, supported by strong household consumption, rising government spending, and recovering manufacturing activity. However, pressure from Rupiah depreciation, capital outflows, widening balance of payments deficits, and rising inflation prompted Bank Indonesia to raise interest rates to 5.25% to maintain currency stability amid heightened global uncertainty and Middle East tensions. IHSG View: Global equity markets remained volatile in May 2026 amid uncertainty over a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement, rising inflation concerns, and fluctuations in global bond yields. Domestically, the JCI declined 29.14% YTD due to Rupiah depreciation, BI Rate hikes, MSCI and FTSE rebalancing pressures, and uncertainty surrounding several government policies. Looking ahead, investors are expected to closely monitor Indonesia’s MSCI Market Accessibility Review, FTSE Russell rebalancing, export policy implementation, and mining royalty revisions, while JCI outlook for 2026 remains supported by projected earnings growth. Sector Allocation: Banks, Oil & Gas, F&B, Metal Mining, and Cement. Read more for the Stock pick. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -

-May 2026- Global Highlight: Global conditions weakened as U.S., Israel, Iran tensions escalated, with the Strait of Hormuz closure disrupting arround 20% of global oil supply and raising stagflation risks. Ongoing military tensions and fragile ceasefire efforts continue to pressure markets and supply chains. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy remains relatively resilient, though moderating growth and energy driven inflation support a higher for longer interest rate outlook. Indonesia Highlight: Bank Indonesia kept rates at 4.75% amid global uncertainty and rupiah pressure, while inflation eased to 2.42% YoY in April 2026 on lower food prices. FX reserves declined due to intervention, and although retail sales and trade surplus remained supportive, weakening consumer confidence and a contractionary PMI indicate softer economic momentum. IHSG View: The JCI decreased 1.3% MoM in April 2026 (-19.55% YTD), pressured by rising oil prices, capital outflows, and negative bank outlook revisions, with continued foreign net sell and MSCI uncertainty. Market volatility is expected to persist, with the JCI projected at 8,157-8,625, supporting a selective strategy on fundamentally strong sectors. Sector Allocation: Metal Mining, Oil & Gas, Retailers, Poultry, Banks, and Infrastructure. Read more for the Stock pick. By PHINTRACO SEKURITAS | Research - Disclaimer On -